KPCB Internet Trends for 2013 – D11

Kleiner Perkins Caufield Byers published a report for the All Things Digital Conference last week with some interesting findings regarding mobile and internet trends for 2013. The entire report is 100+ pages, but here are some notable pages.

Slide 5 – shows the imbalance of time spent VS ad dollars on mobile.
Slide 7 – shows over 60% market share that Android has in units shipped in 2012. That’s great overall for the smartphone market, especially if you look at the Symbian market share in 2005 was over 60% and in 2012, it’s probably around 3%.
Slide 11 – shows the huge amount of data generated on the “internet”. This is not including the big-data that you’ve been hearing about in the news which is referring to the passive data that is generated by users who visit websites, make purchases, check into locations, etc. The prior data reference is in regards to active data.
Slide 12 – highlights the trend of sharing photos. Reminds me of the recent iPhone commercial about how the iPhone (or other smartphone) has completely taken over the casual digital photo space.

Slide 14 – highlights the explosive usage of snapchat. But is the explosive usage of snapchat in response to the user experience of the app?
Slide 17 – 100 hours of video content is uploaded every minute on YouTube. The next Justin Bieber is out there somewhere uploading crap on YouTube and at the same time, YouTube is investing MILLIONS in the creation of original scripted content.
Slide 18 – new video platforms such as Vine and Dropcam are growing at a tremendous pace. This is in line with mobile startup strategies; get millions of users to adopt your app and then sell it for BILLIONS of dollars and let someone else figure out how to monetize it.
Slide 24 – wearable devices MoM growth in 2012. I’m sure 2013 is going to be the year of the wearable device or at least talking about wearable devices with the likes of Google Glasses and fitness/health devices on the mass consumer market.
Slide 25 – in regards to health, behavioral health patterns are still the #1 cause of premature death.
Slide 32 – global mobile traffic as a percentage of total internet traffic is on the rise. When is 5G coming out?
Slide 33 – mobile traffic surpassed desktop traffic in China in 2012. Perfect demonstration of technology leap frogging, where developing countries skip entire technologies; in this case, laptops. What is the next “technology” that China will leap frog?
Slide 34 – mobile search queries surpassed desktop queries in South Korea in 2012. This is going to be the case with other countries in 2013 as well as users around the world are becoming mobile.
Slide 35 – Groupon North America reports that 45% of transactions were completed on mobile devices.
Slide 37 – Facebook mobile ad revenue per unit is offsetting the decline in desktop ARPU. So mobile isn’t supplementing revenue, it’s replacing it. Kinda like the publishing revenue where digital was supposed to supplement subscription revenue instead of cannibalizing it.
Slide 40 – country specific smartphone penetration rates. The BRIC countries still have substantial market share available to conquer. Look for Vodaphone to support that penetration into 3rd world countries.
Slide 42 – Samsung’s growth in market share within 2 years; from 4% to 29% in 60 seconds.
Slide 44 – iPad growth is roughly 3 times that of the iPhone in Q1 2012.
Slide 49 – the history of technology cycles from the 1960’s to present. Does Moores Law still apply?
Slide 52 – sensor overload in wearable devices.
Slide 58 – the change over time of how the platform change affects Pandora. Seems obvious that as more and more people are solely using mobile devices, the use of content shifts to those devices.
Slide 62 – the scannables
Slide 64 – the use of QR codes is up 4x YoY. It’s interesting to see an older technology being adopted by a country that skipped technologies. But it’s interesting to see what they are using it for.
Slide 67 – in 2012, China surpassed the USA in iOS/Android users. Who in the USA is still using the Razor?
Slide 68 – shows the USA still spends a major % of their time watching TV as opposed to those in China. Is it because we have so much good stuff on the tube to watch? If we exported Dancing with the Stars and the Bachelor to China, would those numbers change?
Slide 69 – e-commerce in China is growing rapidly and Alibaba is primed to make a mint.
Slide 73 – a look at GDP as a percent of global GDP for China, USA, Europe, Latin America and India. Looks like in a few years, China is going to be “smiling” and everyone is going to be “frowning”.
Slide 109 – the change in global market share of the PC platform. In a few years, iOS/Android is going to be 85% of the market and Wintel and a few others will make up 15%.